Best and worst years to buy gold

For each January in the World Bank monthly gold series, we invest $10,000 at that month’s average price and hold until Oct 2026. Ranked by CAGR, the strongest start is Jan 2024 at 29.1% ($20,182); the weakest is Jan 1980 at 3.9% ($60,815). Ranked by multiple, the strongest start is Jan 1960 at 117.29× ($1,172,857, 7.4% CAGR).

Best hold-to-today CAGR
29.1%

Start Jan 2024 → $20,182

Worst hold-to-today CAGR
3.9%

Start Jan 1980 → $60,815

Highest hold-to-today multiple
117.29×

Start Jan 1960 → $1,172,857 (7.4% CAGR)

The strongest completed five-year January window was Jan 1970 to Jan 1975 (5.03×, 38.1% CAGR).

Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (CC BY 4.0); inflation: BLS CPI-U. Historical illustration, not financial advice; ignores fees, storage and taxes. Details

How to read these rankings

A hold-to-today table ranked by CAGR can favor a short, recent advance (a high annualized rate over a few years) even when an earlier start produced a much larger multiple over a longer window. Ranked by multiple, early starts usually look better if prices generally rose. A fixed five- or ten-year window answers a third question: if you bought in January and sold about five or ten years later, how did that completed stretch go? All of these use the same official monthly average spot prices, not a gold ETF. Pre-1970s observations still reflect official Bretton Woods prices more than a free market, so a 1960 start should be read with that regime change in mind.

Use the gold calculator to try other dates, or gold in 2000 and gold in 2011 for two contrasting narratives.

Hold until Oct 2026: highest and lowest CAGRs

Top eight and bottom eight January starts, ranked by CAGR, holding through the latest month in the file.
Start (January)End value of $10,000MultipleCAGRYears
Jan 2024$20,1822.02×29.1%2.7
Jan 2025$15,1481.51×26.8%1.7
Jan 2023$21,6282.16×22.9%3.7
Jan 2022$22,6052.26×18.7%4.7
Jan 2019$31,7723.18×16.1%7.7
Jan 2020$26,2972.63×15.4%6.7
Jan 2021$21,9872.20×14.7%5.7
Jan 2018$30,8413.08×13.7%8.7
Jan 1979$180,83718.08×6.3%47.7
Jan 1987$100,61310.06×6.0%39.7
Jan 1984$110,64711.06×5.8%42.7
Jan 1988$86,0598.61×5.7%38.7
Jan 1982$106,90110.69×5.4%44.7
Jan 1983$85,3438.53×5.0%43.7
Jan 1981$73,6987.37×4.5%45.7
Jan 1980$60,8156.08×3.9%46.7

Every January start, held until Oct 2026

Complete list of January starts with at least one year of subsequent data. Source: World Bank Pink Sheet gold, monthly average, USD per troy ounce.
Start (January)End value of $10,000MultipleCAGRYears
Jan 1960$1,172,857117.29×7.4%66.7
Jan 1961$1,172,857117.29×7.5%65.7
Jan 1962$1,172,857117.29×7.6%64.7
Jan 1963$1,172,857117.29×7.8%63.7
Jan 1964$1,172,857117.29×7.9%62.7
Jan 1965$1,172,857117.29×8.0%61.7
Jan 1966$1,172,857117.29×8.2%60.7
Jan 1967$1,172,857117.29×8.3%59.7
Jan 1968$1,140,278114.03×8.4%58.7
Jan 1969$977,38197.74×8.3%57.7
Jan 1970$1,172,857117.29×8.8%56.7
Jan 1971$1,080,263108.03×8.8%55.7
Jan 1972$892,39189.24×8.5%54.7
Jan 1973$631,53863.15×8.0%53.7
Jan 1974$318,21731.82×6.8%52.7
Jan 1975$233,23923.32×6.3%51.7
Jan 1976$313,35931.34×7.0%50.7
Jan 1977$310,98531.10×7.2%49.7
Jan 1978$237,28323.73×6.7%48.7
Jan 1979$180,83718.08×6.3%47.7
Jan 1980$60,8156.08×3.9%46.7
Jan 1981$73,6987.37×4.5%45.7
Jan 1982$106,90110.69×5.4%44.7
Jan 1983$85,3438.53×5.0%43.7
Jan 1984$110,64711.06×5.8%42.7
Jan 1985$135,47913.55×6.4%41.7
Jan 1986$118,30011.83×6.3%40.7
Jan 1987$100,61310.06×6.0%39.7
Jan 1988$86,0598.61×5.7%38.7
Jan 1989$101,60910.16×6.3%37.7
Jan 1990$100,12210.01×6.5%36.7
Jan 1991$106,90110.69×6.9%35.7
Jan 1992$115,96011.60×7.3%34.7
Jan 1993$124,77212.48×7.8%33.7
Jan 1994$106,07210.61×7.5%32.7
Jan 1995$108,31110.83×7.8%31.7
Jan 1996$102,88210.29×7.9%30.7
Jan 1997$115,63411.56×8.6%29.7
Jan 1998$142,04214.20×9.7%28.7
Jan 1999$143,03114.30×10.1%27.7
Jan 2000$144,54214.45×10.5%26.7
Jan 2001$154,90615.49×11.2%25.7
Jan 2002$145,56714.56×11.4%24.7
Jan 2003$114,98611.50×10.8%23.7
Jan 2004$99,1559.92×10.6%22.7
Jan 2005$96,8169.68×11.0%21.7
Jan 2006$74,6367.46×10.2%20.7
Jan 2007$65,0556.51×9.9%19.7
Jan 2008$46,1244.61×8.5%18.7
Jan 2009$47,7884.78×9.2%17.7
Jan 2010$36,7173.67×8.1%16.7
Jan 2011$30,1843.02×7.3%15.7
Jan 2012$24,8192.48×6.4%14.7
Jan 2013$24,5512.46×6.8%13.7
Jan 2014$32,9983.30×9.8%12.7
Jan 2015$32,8143.28×10.6%11.7
Jan 2016$37,3863.74×13.1%10.7
Jan 2017$34,4383.44×13.5%9.7
Jan 2018$30,8413.08×13.7%8.7
Jan 2019$31,7723.18×16.1%7.7
Jan 2020$26,2972.63×15.4%6.7
Jan 2021$21,9872.20×14.7%5.7
Jan 2022$22,6052.26×18.7%4.7
Jan 2023$21,6282.16×22.9%3.7
Jan 2024$20,1822.02×29.1%2.7
Jan 2025$15,1481.51×26.8%1.7

Completed five-year holdings

Each row starts in January and ends at the first observation on or after the fifth anniversary. Best: Jan 1970 to Jan 1975, 5.03× (38.1% CAGR). Worst: Jan 1980 to Jan 1985, 0.45× (-14.8% CAGR).

Top eight and bottom eight completed five-year January-to-January windows.
StartEndEnd valueMultipleCAGR
Jan 1970Jan 1975$50,2865.03×38.1%
Jan 1976Jan 1981$42,5194.25×33.6%
Jan 1975Jan 1980$38,3523.84×30.9%
Jan 1971Jan 1976$34,4743.45×28.1%
Jan 1969Jan 1974$30,7143.07×25.2%
Jan 1977Jan 1982$29,0912.91×23.8%
Jan 1972Jan 1977$28,6962.87×23.5%
Jan 1978Jan 1983$27,8032.78×22.7%
Jan 1997Jan 2002$7,9440.79×-4.5%
Jan 1995Jan 2000$7,4930.75×-5.6%
Jan 1994Jan 1999$7,4160.74×-5.8%
Jan 2012Jan 2017$7,2070.72×-6.3%
Jan 1988Jan 1993$6,8970.69×-7.2%
Jan 1996Jan 2001$6,6420.66×-7.9%
Jan 1981Jan 1986$6,2300.62×-9.0%
Jan 1980Jan 1985$4,4890.45×-14.8%

Completed ten-year holdings

Best: Jan 1970 to Jan 1980, 19.29× (34.4% CAGR). Worst: Jan 1988 to Jan 1998, 0.61× (-4.9% CAGR).

Top eight and bottom eight completed ten-year January-to-January windows.
StartEndEnd valueMultipleCAGR
Jan 1970Jan 1980$192,85719.29×34.4%
Jan 1971Jan 1981$146,57914.66×30.8%
Jan 1972Jan 1982$83,4788.35×23.6%
Jan 1973Jan 1983$74,0007.40×22.2%
Jan 2002Jan 2012$58,6525.87×19.4%
Jan 1969Jan 1979$54,0485.40×18.4%
Jan 2001Jan 2011$51,3215.13×17.8%
Jan 1965Jan 1975$50,2865.03×17.5%
Jan 1992Jan 2002$7,9660.80×-2.2%
Jan 1989Jan 1999$7,1040.71×-3.4%
Jan 1990Jan 2000$6,9270.69×-3.6%
Jan 1991Jan 2001$6,9010.69×-3.6%
Jan 1981Jan 1991$6,8940.69×-3.7%
Jan 1983Jan 1993$6,8400.68×-3.7%
Jan 1980Jan 1990$6,0740.61×-4.9%
Jan 1988Jan 1998$6,0590.61×-4.9%

Frequently asked questions

What was the best January to buy gold and hold until Oct 2026?

January 2024: $10,000 would be $20,182 (2.02×, 29.1% CAGR). That is a starting-point ranking, not a prediction.

What was the worst January in that hold-to-today ranking?

January 1980: $10,000 would be $60,815 (6.08×, 3.9% CAGR).

What about five-year holdings, rather than holding until today?

The strongest completed five-year window starting in January was Jan 1970 to Jan 1975 (5.03×, 38.1% CAGR). The weakest was Jan 1980 to Jan 1985 (0.45×, -14.8% CAGR).

Does a “best year” mean gold is a good investment now?

No. These rankings describe the past of one official monthly average spot series. They ignore costs and taxes, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source

See also

Gold calculator Gold in 2000 Gold in 2011 Gold vs houses vs T-bills